금리 인상 경고음 3번 울린 한국은행…7월 ‘빅스텝’ 가능성 제기
한국은행이 기준금리 인상 가능성을 잇따라 시사하면서 다음달 금융통화위원회에서 실제 인상에 나설지 시장의 관심이 쏠리고 있다. 원·달러 환율이 1500원대에 머무르는 가운데 주요국 중앙은행들도 다시 긴축 기조로 돌아서면서 한은의 통화정책 전환에 한층 힘이 실리고 있다는 분석이 나온다. 일각에서는 한은이 기준금리를 한 번에 0.50%포인트 올리는 ‘빅스텝’에 나설 수 있다는 전망까지 제기된다.
14일 금융권에 따르면 한은의 긴축 신호는 이미 세 차례 나왔다. 유상대 한은 부총재는 지난달 3일(현지시간) 우즈베키스탄 사마르칸트에서 열린 아시아개발은행 ADB 연차총회 및 아세안+3 재무장관·중앙은행 총재 회의 참석을 계기로 기자간담회를 열고 “금리 인하를 멈추고 인상하는 것에 관한 고민을 해야 할 때가 됐다”고 밝혔다. 당시 유 부총재는 금리 인상 사이클로의 전환 가능성을 처음 공개적으로 언급했다.
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두 번째 신호는 지난달 28일 금통위 직후 나왔다. 신현송 한은 총재는 통화정책방향 기자간담회에서 “향후 적절한 시기에 기준금리를 인상할 필요가 있다”고 말했다. 신 총재는 물가와 성장, 환율, 부동산 상황을 언급하며 “갈 길이 명확하다”고도 했다.
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